Dmitry Bivol’s points win in New York last weekend got us back to winning ways with good value. This weekend’s action is stacked, however, there is one stand-out fight coming from Texas. Two of the top ten pound-for-pound stars slug it out in a fight contesting the IBF welterweight title, as Mikey Garcia jumps up two weights to take on the champion Errol Spence Jr.
It’s a ballsy move from Garcia. The former four-weight world champion (from featherweight to light-welterweight) is inexperienced in the deep, murky waters of the 147-pounds division, with size the talking point of this fight since it was made official last year.
Errol Spence Jr is a bit welterweight. The 29-year-old is unbeaten in his 24 fights, winning 21 by KO; his destruction of Kell Brook on enemy soil in 2017 underlined the power that “The Truth” possesses with both hands – something that Garcia will have to negate for a testing 36 minutes.
When this fight was made, it was thrown away by many as a huge mismatch between two guys chasing the money. Spence opened up as a huge favourite in the betting markets, but despite this, the needle on the narrative has shifted slightly as we approach the main event.
Teddy Atlas has been one of the respected views in the sport that has come out favouring Garcia now that time has ticked on, with the legendary trainer emphasizing the challengers skill-set.
“I do [like his chances] as long as he feints before delivering his punches.”
“Mikey is a terrific technical boxer. So, it is imperative that he doesn’t give up his defense for offense. Mikey has to get in and get out, put his punches together and not get too greedy. By getting off first, essentially Mikey is cutting the side of the beef off, by simply cutting the sides off and not the middle, Mikey can take small bites of the beef.”
“People think that the only way to win a fight is by a fighter exploiting the flaws in his opponent. Forget about what [Spence] does bad. Mikey must prevent Spence from doing everything that he does well. Everyone is (saying) that Mikey is at a disadvantage because he is the smaller man. No, he’s not (at a disadvantage.) As a result of being the smaller man, Mikey is quicker, he’s more fleet-footed against the more cement-footed Spence.”
A solid argument for the case of a Garcia upset. Garcia has looked fantastic in his recent outings against the likes of Robert Easter Jr., Sergey Lipinets and Adrien Broner, however, Spence knows that he just needs to connect with one of his dangerous combinations to put Mikey on his back foot. The narrative coming around to Garcia’s chance in this fight has provided an ounce of value in the market for a Spence stoppage win. An upset isn’t out of the question – but I’m not willing to back it.
Errol Spence to win by KO/TKO/DQ/Technical Decision @ 21/20 (BetFred)
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