City to take another defining step?
The highlight of Saturday’s round of Premier League action comes from Stamford Bridge as Chelsea play host to reigning champions Manchester City (BT Sport 1 – 5.30 pm kick off). The set up for the fixture will give the Citizens another chance to put some distance between themselves and another one of the current top five. Will Manchester City deliver the goods once again or can Chelsea come up with a creative solution and stop the City juggernaut?
Can Blues learn from last season’s mistakes?
In last season’s Premier League meetings Chelsea got it wrong tactically against Manchester City. Then under the management of Antonio Conte, the Blues had thrown off everything that had worked for them in the previous season against City. After positive performances had driven Chelsea to back to back wins over the Citizens in the 2016/17 season, last term they tried to contain the Citizens as opposed to actually challenging them.
It backfired as Manchester City claimed 1-0 victories in both league fixtures against the Blues. A repeat of the 1-0 correct scoreline for the Citizens returns a quote of a general 10/1 at top bookmakers for the Chelsea v Man City game. Of course, this time around Chelsea have a new manager in charge. They have Maurizio Sarri, who will be looking to become the first manager to have plotted the downfall of the Citizens in a Premier League match this season. Will he be able to get the perfect ‘Sarriball’ performance out of his side?
Sizing up the current form
The Blues came out so strongly this season, frankly to the surprise of a lot of people who expected them to need some transition time under the new boss. The approach that Sarri takes is vastly different to that of predecessor Conte, but somehow the Italian got the Blues going right out of the gate, winning their first five games of the season. Arguably a favourable run of fixtures helped them out a bit.
Chelsea went unbeaten until it was unlucky 13 for them. They were trounced 3-1 at Wembley against Spurs in their thirteenth league match of the season. But there had been signs before that, that momentum was being lost. The high-intensity levels which Sarri demands started to decline and Chelsea became slow starters in games. Sarri almost predicted the downfall against Spurs, having cited in previous matches that his side was having problems that they needed to fix. The result at Spurs was a wake up call and could be turned into a positive.
A positive is that the defeat against Spurs is their only loss against the others of the so-called Big 6 this term. The Blues banked draws against Liverpool and Manchester United (at Stamford Bridge) and they collected a thrilling 3-2 win over London rivals Arsenal back near the start of the season. While ultimately it may not point towards a league title for Chelsea, a win in this one could certainly give Chelsea a massive leg up in trying to secure a top-four finish this season. They will be defending a very positive unbeaten home run of eight games this season.
City on cruise control
But then how do you solve a problem like Man City? Since their high-profile and pretty cagey 0-0 draw at Anfield against Liverpool back in early October, the Citizens have put together a seven-match winning streak in the top flight. Not too surprisingly even though they are out on the road in this one, they are 4/5 odds-on favourites at leading bookmakers to take maximum points. That says a lot about them being away from home at a side who haven’t lost a home fixture this season. That’s just another compliment to how strong City are.
I mentioned Liverpool there, but the Citizens have had other big tests this season. They have beaten both Spurs and Arsenal away from home and also collected a solid 3-1 home success over rivals United in the Manchester derby. So they have answered some big question already really and the upside of that, is that when they complete this game against Chelsea, it leaves them with home advantage in four of their five remaining games this season against the Big Six.
In their game at Anfield this term, City recognised what was in front of them and they took a conservative approach to the game. They knew that Liverpool’s high-pressing was a danger. That’s what Chelsea will bring to the table. Being conservative is something that Pep Guardiola’s men really don’t have to do all that often. But in their draw at Anfield this season, it showed the willingness to adapt and the ability to change after having struggled against the Reds last season. Manchester City had a winning formula against the Blues last term and they will probably look to follow the same pattern, even though they will facing a Chelsea side under different tactics.
Creating Distance
Already City has put distance between themselves and everyone else in the league aside from Liverpool. This is another opportunity for the Citizens to create even more distance between themselves and pretty much the rest of the chasing pack. Another victory against one of the Big Six for City would all but decimate the chances of anyone else catching them. A win for Chelsea would at least keep hope alive (if not for themselves but for Liverpool) that Manchester City can be caught. It would keep the small window open at least.
The Big Questions
Things then are even at two wins each in the last four Premier League meetings between the two clubs. Looking back further, over the last ten EPL meetings there have been four wins each and two draws. Interestingly there has been a trend too which could set the stall for later in the season. In each of the last five seasons, the result in the first meeting has been repeated in the second fixture for that season.
2013/14 – Chelsea won both
2014/15 – Two draws
2015/16 – Man City won both
2016/17 – Chelsea won both
2017/18 – Man City won both
Can Sarri find the key to unlocking Manchester City? At 16/5 odds for the win on home soil, there are big odds to overcome. Will Chelsea be brave enough to try their high-pressing, high-intensity and the possession-driven game against the Citizens? Will the Citizens be happy enough to conserve their unbeaten status and collect a point at Stamford Bridge? There will be big questions answered at Stamford Bridge on the weekend.
