With the Women’s World Cup, Africa Cup of Nations and Copa America all running at the same time, the CONCACAF Gold Cup hasn’t grabbed the headlines in the football world, but there has been some exciting football played, and an tournament full of surprises has thrown up two potentially fascinating semi-final encounters, starting with Mexico versus Haiti on Tuesday.
Mexico, guided by the man who steered Atlanta to the MLS crown last season, Tata Martino, go into this game as the overwhelming favourites. According to BetCris, Los Tri are rated a -950 chance while Haiti can be backed at odds as big as +639.
That’s not too surprising, given their head to head record. Mexico have won five out of six games against Haiti since 1953, drawing one, and have an aggregate advantage in terms of goals of 22 to 2. They are also in excellent goal-scoring form, having scored twelve goals in three games in the Group phase, as they comfortably saw off Cuba, Canada and Martinique.
But Haiti, who are appearing in their first ever Gold Cup semi-final, should not be underestimated. They came through their Group with maximum points, beating Costa Rica, Bermuda and Nicaragua, and then produced arguably the performance of the tournament so far. Rated as big underdogs in their quarter-final against Canada, they trailed the favourites 2-0 at half-time, but turned that round with an exhilarating spell of attacking football to earn a famous 3-2 win.
Under Marc Collat, Haiti play a refreshingly bold brand of football, relying on pressing, pace and a willingness to shoot from anywhere to overwhelm opponents. While their high defensive line can sometimes leave them vulnerable, as they showed in the first half against Canada, their ability to score at any time makes them particularly dangerous.
And there is some cause for concern for Mexico fans. Their squad is dangerously short on top level experience, as they are without Javier Hernandez, Carlos Vela and Hector Herrera, as well as missing the cutting edge of rising star Hirving Lozano. Up against a stubborn Costa Rica side in their quarter-final, Mexico struggled to find a way through and in the end had to come through a nail-biting penalty shoot-out against opponents that Haiti had beaten 2-1.
Ten-time champions Mexico obviously have the better team on paper, but their inexperienced squad has yet to be seriously tested and with the weight of expectation on their shoulders, against opponents who have nothing to lose, it is not inconceivable that the favourites could start to feel the pressure. They could also be inconvenienced by the fact that manager Martino will be suspended from the touchline as a result of a second yellow card picked up during the sometimes-ill-tempered quarter final.
Either way, this promises to be a fascinating clash of styles between Mexico’s patient, possession-based game, and Haiti’s dashing endeavour, and who knows, we could yet one of the tournament’s most famous surprises.
