Wilder v Fury
Often the weekend can get a little bit crowded in terms of picking out the real highlight. This weekend, however, even though still busy, I have had little trouble honing in, with laser-beam focus on what should be the pick of the bunch. You may have to break out the matchsticks to prop up those eyelids for a late start of Saturday night/Sunday morning but the upcoming Deontay Wilder v Tyson Fury boxing clash is one worth staying up for.
This is the top bout on Saturday’s card from LA and it should be the real highlight of the sporting weekend and that’s saying something when you have both the North London derby and the Merseyside derby happening in the Premier League on Sunday.
Fury fuels an upset
It is now over three years ago that Fury caused a huge shock in the boxing world by taking out Wladimir Klitschko at the Esprit Arena in Dusseldorf, Germany. Fury had gone into the bout as the underdog against the reigning champion and in a bout of little offence from either fighter, Fury teased and tormented the Urkanian, took the fight the distance and got the victory for a unanimous decision.
It will long live on as one of the most memorable nights in boxing and it should have been the platform for Fury to push himself to newer, greater heights. A rematch the following year failed to happen due to an injury to Fury and then his world went backwards as he had to vacate his heavyweight title in 2016 because of pending invitation on both anti-doping and medical issues. He stepped away from voluntary suffering depression.
Comeback Gypsy King
Fury has shed ten-stone in weight over the last year as he has worked his way back to get a shot at something big again. This time it is a shot at the WBC heavyweight title. Effortless wins over Sefer Seferi and Francesco Pianeta in his two matches on his comeback trail this year really give no clue or indication of what to expect from the Gypsy King in LA on the weekend. They have merely been exercises in getting out a bit of ring-rust and nothing more.
The question is, can Fury cause an upset again? As soon as the fight was announced, leading bookmakers had Fury as the underdog. He has though been well backed into a relatively short 6/4 price at most of the leading bookmakers for this bout as the weekend closes in. That will just make him even more appealing in the eyes of the punters. Fury will take a 27-0 career record into the bout.
Wilder Power
Wilder, of course, is one of the top fighters in the game and his undefeated career record is a testament to that. Wilder will take a 40-0 career record into this. But he is a fighter who garners a lot of criticism and it is easy to see why. You can look back through his list of fights and struggle to find an opponent of any real note that he has duelled with in the ring. Realistically his last fight, against Cuba’s Luis Ortiz back in March, is the only serious high-quality opponent he has met.
Ortiz hurt him in that fight as well. The only one to really have done so since Eric Molina got under his skin a little bit back in the summer of 2015. It was the fight against Ortiz really which pinpointed some grit that Wilder has though and it is an element of his skillset that isn’t often seen. He got hurt, but he had the nous to survive and tenacity to come back and win.
It seems to be a trait of the modern boxer that you can have a strong chin and resilience as well as a heavy punch. Think Klitschko, think Anthony Johnson. Wilder has the power behind him, but still, that niggling fact about him not having had as many serious tests as purists would have liked for him to have faced, sticks with him.
Wilder does lean more on the slugger side than the boxing side. The American is the odds-on favourite at 4/7 to take out Fury which is a 63.6% implied probability.
Where it could be won and lost
Wilder has a powerful overhand right shot, which could be the key weapon in breaking through the defence of Fury. Twice in his career Fury has been sent to the canvas badly by such a strike, both tumbles coming earlier on in his career. It really not too arguable that it is the American who has the great hitting power. All but one of his 40 career victories have been by a knockout. It is a wild, ferocious untamed beast of uncontrolled power that Wilder has.
In terms of boxing skill and savviness in the ring, Fury’s performance against Klitschko was one of the most focused that you will see from a fighter. Yes, there was the showboating, the goading, the taunting but at the same time, he never let his guard down when it mattered. Fury picked his moments to rattle his opponent. He will likely risk less against Wilder and won’t care about the fight dragging on. Wilder has generally stopped his fights early (three of his last four have gone eight or fewer rounds) so endurance questions will rise about him too.
The fight is a general 4/6 odds across the board at leading bookmakers to NOT go the distance.
Overall, the British fighter may have a tactical edge, which he needs to in order to stay out of trouble, as well as being able to needle the temperament of his opponent. If Wilder has nothing to hit, then advantage swings to Fury. Fury avoided Klitschko so very well.
It has been much-talked-about, but ring-rust really isn’t going to come into this to the point that it yields an advantage. Wilder last fought back in March, Fury has fought twice since then. In his last two fights, Fury has faced fourteen rounds, Wilder eleven. It could be argued that Fury’s preparation in those two fights was against opponents who weren’t going to prepare him for Wilder. Frankly no-one he could have faced would have.
But then the veteran skills of Ortiz will be vastly different to what Wilder will face in Fury. But Wilder will clearly have the advantage of having had five fights since Fury’s win over Klitschko in November 2015, Fury having had just the two. When it comes to conditioning, Wilder’s could be that little bit better, but the work that Fury has done to drop so much weight in twelve months is staggering and shows how committed and how badly he wants to get back to the top of the game.
The playing field looks level. Will Fury be able to thrive once more from his position as the underdog in such a massive title fight?
Which comes first?
When the dust settles on what should be a fantastic spectacle it will be so interesting to see what follows? Will it first be a rematch between Fury and Wilder? Will the victor get what every fighter in the division wants right now, a shot at Anthony Joshua?
