The ‘sweet science’ has been adored by fans world wide for decades. Historically, it has been one of the most popular sports to make a wager on, with a recent spike in popularity lending itself to further attention in the betting markets.

The ultimate one-on-one, mano a mano combat sport epitomises what we love about about sport; each fighter putting their careers on the line every time they step into the squared circle.

These days, many of the big fights are combated in casinos, gambling venues, and hotels. Crowds have had easy access to wagering on the outcome of the battle as far as records go back, with gangsters commonly owning fighters and venues, opening books on a series of illegal contests. Now, it is controlled, however the hunger to place a bet on the big fights are still as strong as it has ever been.

However, how can we assure that we bet boxing, intelligently?

In a two horse race, which boxing is, it’s important to understand the disparity between the favourite and the underdog.

It is natural to want to back the favourite in a boxing contest. However, the rewards for supporting this outcome will be significantly less than the underdog. Obviously, the bigger the favourite, the less the pay-out will be. It is in these instances where finding value comes into play. Are the prices representative of the difference between the two fighters?

Value in the favourite

When you have in-depth knowledge of your sport, real value is easy to find; it is the type of information that odds compilers and algorithms can’t readily build into there prediction models. For example, Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor set all kinds of records last summer in the boxing mismatch of the year. On the face of it, you had a boxing legend with a 49-0 record vs. a novice who was making his professional debut in the sport.

Sure, McGregor has achieved greatness in mixed martial arts, but the bout was taking place in a boxing ring – somewhere that the Irishman had never competed professionally. MMA fans saw the price of McGregor (at one point as high as 9.0) as easy money; Mayweather fans saw the temptation of a Mayweather win (finishing at 1.25) as even easier money. We knew the narrative, and as boxing fans and insiders, we knew the outcomes before the first bell. With the amount of money placed on McGregor, Mayweather’s price on fight night was just like printing money. A £100 stake would return £125 on Floyd. Sure, it’s a heavy stake, but it was unrepresentative on the lack of risk involved, therefore was an intelligent wager to place.

Home ‘upsets’

Promotional companies’ prized assets (Anthony Joshua to Matchroom or Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez to Golden Boy) are often wrapped up in cotton wool through the beginnings of their career. They are spoon fed victims (taxi drivers, plumbers, you name it…) through their first ten fights until they start building their record full of credible opponents; upsets are a real rarity here, and their odds will reinforce this. However, all stables will have fighters who are deemed less important to protect, with a loss on their records not being something that will define their careers. These ‘cannon fodder’ fighters will fight on the undercards of the stars against well-matched opposition. However an upset is a lot more common. A lot of these opponents will be unknown to the boxing community, let alone the odds compilers, so their prices will often be unrepresentative of the threat they pose.

Knowing some of these ‘nomad’ fighters will pay huge dividends if you can nail an upset. It may take a few attempts, but the rewards will be worth it in the long run.

Pick the ending

Sometimes you get a fight between two guys with completely different styles. A big hitter against a smooth stylist. In this instance, it’s worth looking to double up on the two outcomes of the fight. Is the big hitter likely to romp to a points victory? No. Is the stylish, more technical fighter likely to land a big bomb and end the contest? No. This was prevalent in the recent WBSS final between Oleksandr Usyk and Murat Gassiev.

Gassiev was only ever going to win that fight by KO, and Usyk, arguably, was only ever going to win on the cards. Therefore, backing each man to win by their expected method can show good returns in comparison to just picking a winner outright. This proves profitable in 50/50 fights, where both fighters have completely contradictory styles.

The beauty of boxing

Like any sport – boxing is hard to predict correctly over a sustained period continually. From Muhammad Ali and Mike Tyson to ‘Sugar’ Ray Leonard, and Manny Pacquiao, a majority of fighters will eventually lose inside the squared circle; picking what fights to bet on carefully tends to prove the most profitable from a betting perspective. A popular underdog is often best to avoid, as their price will have come in considerably as you approach fight night. A heavy favourite, on the other hand, is often still worth backing even if the price is as low as 1.15.

Upsets aren’t very common amongst the sport’s elite (during the pump of their career), so if you can sniff out any value, it’s often going to be worth a substantial stake. However – if Buster Douglas’ victory over Mike Tyson in 1990 is anything to go by – boxing still has its shocks even at the highest level. A costly reminder of why we adore the unpredictability of the fight game so much.