When South Africa take on Sri Lanka at Chester-le-Street in Durham on Friday, only one of the two teams will still have a chance of reaching the World Cup semi-finals, but it isn’t the team you’d expect.
South Africa were not predicted to be among the top tier of teams at this year’s tournament, but they were considered to be realistic top four contenders, despite the absence of the retired AB De Villiers. But instead, they’ve played some of the worst cricket seen from a Proteas side in recent years, losing five of their seven games so far, and with just one win to their name, against the lowest-ranked team in the competition, Afghanistan, they have already been effectively eliminated from the competition.
Little was expected from Sri Lanka, by contrast, as the 1996 winners went into the tournament without any form and having opted for what looked like an unbalanced squad, dominated by veterans.
But although the Sri Lankans haven’t exactly set the tournament alight, they have played some good cricket, and with three games to go, can still force their way into the top four, though they will probably have to beat India in their final game and also hope other results go their way.
Sri Lanka could also argue that they’ve had the worst of the English weather. They are the only team in the competition to have suffered two wash outs. Both of those no results came in fixtures against beatable opponents in Pakistan and Bangladesh, so they could conceivably have been two points better off than they currently are, and a lot closer to a top four spot.
Those washed out games, their third and fourth of the tournament, have made it hard for them to build up any momentum, but after losing their fifth match to Australia, they gave themselves some hope by scoring a sensational victory over the tournament favourites and hosts England. Having been restricted to a total of just 232 at Headingly, Sri Lanka were grateful to their veteran bowlers Lasith Malinga and Isuru Idana, who took six wickets between them as they skittled the powerful England batting line-up for a paltry 212 to secure an unlikely 20-run win.
It is slightly surprising, therefore, to find South Africa rated as favourites for this game with bookmakers. In fact, BetCris rate Faf du Plessis side as the -210 favourites, with Sri Lanka available at +165. While the Sri Lankans still have a lot to do if they are going to get into the top four, they have played better cricket than their opponents, who have been consistently underpowered with the bat and who have proven surprisingly ineffective with the ball in English conditions.
Momentum can count for a lot in one day cricket, and with the benefit of that morale-boosting victory over England, Sri Lanka will certainly fancy their chances of beating a South African team with nothing to look forward to other than the flight home.
